A Resurgence of Investor Confidence

Earlier this week, real estate professionals from over 70 countries gathered in Munich for the annual EXPO Real trade fair. After a muted year of investment volume, participants were eager to meet with peers to discuss prospective deals and the outlook for the market.

The mood can be best described in two words: cautiously optimistic. After rising interest rates caused months of uncertainty and volatility, attendees finally feel stability is on the horizon. Below are three key topics discussed as delegates look ahead to 2025.

Interest rates on the decline

Monetary policy decisions on both sides of the Atlantic were a major topic at this year’s EXPO. The European Central Bank began cutting rates this summer, followed by the Federal Reserve in September. These rate cuts are an indicator that inflation is on track to reach its target level for price stability.

As a result, we’ve seen the bid-ask spread between buyers and sellers narrowing as real estate values adjust to more realistic levels. For investors waiting on the sidelines for economic clarity, this has also served as the impetus to start deploying capital into new and existing assets.

At W. P. Carey, however, we would caution that investors should not focus too much on the next interest rate decision. Instead, they should consider the more important factor – long-term borrowing costs. Real estate investors typically borrow on a long-term basis given the length of their leases, so short-term rate cuts won’t have as much of an impact as some are anticipating.

New sectors growing in popularity

Post-pandemic challenges in sectors including office and some segments of retail have made investors far more selective in terms of capital allocation. Industrial remains among the most popular asset classes as it continues to benefit from strong market fundamentals. The e-commerce boom and logistics sector’s key role in European supply chains remain long-term growth drivers, while the emerging trend towards nearshoring will provide manufacturing and logistics with a further boost.

We’re also starting to see some newer sectors growing in popularity. Self-storage, cold storage, senior living, hospitality and data centers have emerged as attractive investments, with strong operating fundamentals and positive long-term growth potential. As investors continue the flight to safety to protect returns, we expect to see a shift in the sectors – and geographic markets – receiving the most capital.

An uptick in sale-leasebacks in 2025

Despite some volatility, the overall environment for sale-leasebacks remains favorable, with high-yield debt and leveraged loans continuing to be expensive. The influx of cash from a sale-leaseback remains incredibly valuable for companies, supporting debt restructuring, strengthening balance sheets and providing capital for operating expenses and growth investments. 

In addition, we continue to see interest from private equity firms in sale-leasebacks as a means of financing new acquisitions or bolstering the growth of portfolio companies. Last year alone, approximately 75% of W. P. Carey’s investment volume was attributable to transactions with PE-backed companies and we anticipate a significant portion of this year’s deal volume will be as well.

While it will take some time for the sale-leaseback market to recalibrate and reach its new normal, we are starting to see the green shoots of a more stable industry as we gear up for a busy fourth quarter. We remain “cautiously optimistic” heading into 2025 and look forward to continuing to find opportunities to help companies unlock capital from their real estate assets.