A Focus on the Future
Key takeaways from EXPO Real 2023
The mood at this year’s EXPO Real was understandably somber. Investment volumes across Europe are down significantly and uncertainty around the future of interest rates prevails. While typically a platform to get deals done, attendees this year were more focused on getting a better understanding of the market and discussing challenges, solutions and opportunities for the year ahead – neatly summed in the slogan “survive to ’25.” Here were three of the most prominent topics discussed.
Interest rates hinder transaction volume
Just a few weeks prior to EXPO, the European Central Bank raised interest rates to a record high. ECB officials believe that rates “have reached levels that, maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution” to reducing inflation, although did not rule out further increases. The uncertainty surrounding where rates will peak – and when they will potentially decrease – has created turmoil in the investment market, with Search -global commercial real estate transaction volume down 54% year-over-year as of the end of the second quarter.
Most attendees at EXPO largely echoed that rates will likely not start to decrease in the near future, meaning the financing environment through the end of the year and into 2024 will remain challenging. This high interest rate environment is most challenging for asset-level borrowers, as lending for individual properties is increasingly difficult to secure. With no rate cuts in sight, the consensus was that deal volume will be muted into 2024 as both buyers and sellers adjust to the new real estate cycle and pricing expectations.
New development stalling due to insolvencies
Another topic of conversation was the increasing number of developers, particularly in the German market, that have filed for insolvency due to rising interest rates and construction costs. Big names such as Gerch and Development Partner have gone under, with more project development casualties expected to follow in the coming weeks as lenders look to get out. A recent Development Monitor survey shows that 40% of all development projects in the country are running at least a quarter or more behind schedule, with the number of new developments being started also down 50% from last year. Though these development challenges have largely impacted the residential market so far, we expect it will trickle into commercial real estate, adding to the long list of struggles the German market is facing.
Sale-leasebacks in the spotlight
A beacon of hope in the real estate market is that the sale-leaseback model remains an attractive financing option for corporates looking to unlock immediate capital. Cap rates on sale-leasebacks have increased less than interest rates on bank loans, making them a more attractive financing option for companies on a cost-of-capital basis. In this environment, the influx of cash from a sale-leasebacks can be incredibly valuable for companies, supporting debt restructuring, strengthening their balance sheet and providing capital for operating expenses and growth investments.
W. P. Carey has been operating for 50 years through all real estate cycles, and in our experience, sale-leasebacks are a great tool for corporates in any market environment. While 2024 will certainly have its challenges, we are optimistic about the future and are confident in our ability to continuing working with companies to realize the full value of their real estate assets.
Related Topics:
You May Also Like:
How E-Commerce Is Shaping Supply Chains and Driving Demand for Logistics Real Estate
While the pandemic-era surge in online shopping has moderated, e-commerce remains one of the most powerful forces influencing logistics real estate. Consumer purchasing habits have fundamentally changed, with digital channels now firmly embedded in how people shop. As retailers, manufacturers and logistics providers adapt to rising expectations for speed, convenience and flexibility, the need for modern fulfillment infrastructure continues to expand. The result is a logistics landscape that is becoming increasingly sophisticated, with occupiers reevaluating distribution networks to better serve a digital-first economy. Logistics Has Become Critical to the E-Commerce Experience E-commerce has matured from a fast-growing retail channel into a foundational component of global commerce. According to a recent McKinsey survey, 57% of consumers rank digital as their primary purchasing channel—almost double the level reported in 2022. For retailers, this shift has significant supply chain implications. Fulfillment networks are being redesigned to support broader product assortments, deeper inventory levels, direct-to-consumer shipping, returns processing, and value-added services such as product assembly and customization. Real estate strategy is also becoming more closely tied to service levels. Facilities positioned near major population centers can help shorten delivery windows and improve the efficiency of last-mile logistics—the final stage of the delivery process, when goods move from a distribution facility to the end customer. As consumers continue to expect faster, more reliable delivery, this part of the supply chain has become a key competitive differentiator. Nearshoring Is Providing an Additional Tailwind Companies are increasingly pursuing nearshoring and onshoring initiatives to improve supply chain resilience, reduce transportation costs and bring production closer to end markets. These strategies gained momentum following years of supply chain disruptions and continue to be influenced by evolving trade policies and geopolitical considerations. Unlike last-mile strategies, which focus on the final movement of goods, nearshoring is reshaping the upstream side of the supply chain. By moving production closer to end markets, companies can improve operational control, reduce exposure to disruption and better align inventory with customer demand. In the U.S., changes in foreign trade policies and tariff structures have further encouraged companies to diversify sourcing strategies and establish a stronger domestic presence. Cross-border e-commerce companies, in particular, are expanding their U.S. logistics footprints to help future-proof operations amid potential regulatory changes. As new manufacturing facilities come online, the need for supporting warehouse, distribution and transportation infrastructure is expected to increase, creating additional opportunities within industrial and logistics real estate. A New Era for Logistics Real Estate It’s projected that U.S. e-commerce penetration—the percentage of total retail sales that occurs online—will rise from approximately 24% in 2025 to 30% by 2030. This growth has meaningful implications for logistics real estate demand, as every one percentage-point increase in e-commerce's share of retail sales translates into approximately 50 million to 70 million square feet of industrial space absorption. Beyond sheer volume growth, e-commerce is also changing the type of industrial and logistics space occupiers require. To support greater supply chain flexibility, companies are increasingly seeking modern facilities with higher clear heights, advanced automation capabilities and strong transportation connectivity. Looking Ahead E-commerce is no longer just changing how consumers shop—it is reshaping how companies build, operate and future-proof their supply chains. Well-located, modern facilities with the flexibility to support evolving distribution strategies are likely to remain in high demand, underscoring the long-term value of logistics assets in a digital-first economy.
Sale-leasebacks Earn a Bigger Role in Capital Strategies
Corporate operators and private equity sponsors are increasingly using sale-leasebacks in their capital strategies, whether to fund acquisitions, manage costs, or improve their balance sheet position. When companies own significant real estate, this structure provides access to the full property value without disrupting operations, says Zachary Pasanen, managing director and co-head of North American investments at W. P. Carey. "Companies often have significant capital tied up in real estate, so a sale-leaseback allows them to monetize the real estate fully, lock in a very long-term contract, and fix their rent for a sustained period of time," Pasanen says, adding that proceeds are commonly used to shore up balance sheets, fund growth initiatives, pay down expensive debt, or address near-term obligations coming due. As more companies weigh their options for unlocking the value of their real estate, the structure's appeal comes down to how well it fits broader capital goals. Private Equity Sponsors Find Value in the Multiple Gap Private equity firms have become steady users of sale-leasebacks to finance corporate acquisitions, Pasanen notes. This structure provides an opportunity to capture value from the gap between the real estate multiple and the acquisition multiple. "You can often find strong accretion by utilizing the sale-leaseback," Pasanen says. He adds that prudent CFOs and sponsors are factoring it into M&A strategies as an additional way to capitalize acquisitions. Corporate operators are also using this structure for other balance sheet purposes. For example, companies looking to pay down near-term or expensive debt may apply sale-leaseback proceeds while maintaining operational control of their facility. "The way we structure a lease gives them effectively the same controls they had when they owned the facility," Pasanen says. He explains that tenants can make alterations within reason, and they remain responsible for taxes, maintenance and insurance, much as they were before the deal closed. Pasanen also notes that W. P. Carey is a long-term capital partner to its tenants and can support their real estate needs as they evolve, with the ability to finance expansions, renovations or energy retrofits at their leased properties. Capital Flows In as Appetite Stays Strong Companies holding real estate often find the structure attractive because it helps them unlock a property's full market value. Pasanen notes that mortgage financing, by contrast, typically returns around 50 to 70 cents on the dollar. Corporate demand for sale-leasebacks is met by a market with no shortage of capital supporting it. Pasanen expects the sale-leaseback market to remain active, noting that a growing pool of investors are entering the space. For specialized facilities where tenants have invested heavily and relocation is expensive, Pasanen says investor demand remains particularly strong. This suggests the structure will remain a viable option, particularly for companies whose real estate is critical to their operations.
Sale-leasebacks: A Flexible Capital Solution Across the M&A Lifecycle
As private equity firms continue to navigate a dynamic M&A environment, access to capital is critical. One increasingly important tool in their toolkit is the sale-leaseback. By unlocking capital embedded in real estate, sale-leasebacks can support transactions at multiple stages of the deal lifecycle – from acquisition financing to post-close optimization. Below, we explore how private equity sponsors are leveraging sale-leasebacks both at the point of acquisition and after closing, with a recent transaction serving as a practical example. Strengthening the Capital Stack at Acquisition In competitive M&A processes, particularly in corporate carveouts or complex platform acquisitions, certainty of financing and speed of execution are critical differentiators. Sale-leasebacks can play a key role at this stage by serving as a complementary capital source within the transaction structure. Rather than relying solely on traditional debt or equity, private equity firms can incorporate a sale-leaseback to monetize a target company’s owned real estate as part of the acquisition financing. Because land and buildings tend to sell at higher valuations than the company itself, private equity firms can sell portfolio company real estate and rent it back under a long-term lease, thereby capturing a multiple arbitrage and blending up their initial purchase price multiple without necessarily contributing more equity themselves. Using a sale-leaseback at closing serves a number of benefits, including: Providing immediate funds to aid in maximizing purchase price to a Seller (and winning an auction) Reducing the required equity investment Lowering overall cost of funds or increasing overall financing duration from traditional financing sources In this way, sale-leasebacks serve not just as a financing tool, but as a competitive edge in winning and efficiently executing complex M&A transactions. Unlocking Value Post-Acquisition While executing a sale-leaseback at closing may often be optimal, for a number of reasons acquirors may prefer to wait until post-closing to pursue a sale-leaseback. Post-acquisition capital can be a way to fund additional acquisitions, repay expensive debt, or invest in incremental equipment or higher ROI opportunities. Once a private equity firm has acquired a business, monetizing owned real estate through a sale-leaseback allows the sponsor to: Recapture a portion of its initial equity investment Reallocate capital toward portfolio company growth initiatives, add-on acquisitions or operational improvements Replace shorter-term debt with long-duration leases with no refinancing risk Post-closing sale-leasebacks offer a number of advantages in optimizing a business where additional capital could be put to better use. Private equity firms can often benefit from evaluating their real estate portfolios to find untapped sources of capital to reinvest in their businesses. Case Study: GardenCore In May 2026, W. P. Carey completed the $400 million sale-leaseback of a 43-property manufacturing portfolio leased to GardenCore, a leading U.S. manufacturer of lawn and garden consumables. The deal was completed in conjunction with a private equity firm’s acquisition of the business as part of a corporate carveout. By incorporating the sale-leaseback into the capital stack, the sponsor was able to unlock value and reduce the acquisition purchase price, illustrating how sale-leasebacks can help facilitate complex M&A deals. A Strategic Lever for Private Equity As M&A activity continues to evolve, sale-leasebacks are increasingly becoming a core component of how private equity sponsors structure and optimize their acquisitions, transforming real estate from a passive asset into a strategic source of capital. With over $6 billion in private equity financing completed since 1973, W. P. Carey remains well positioned to support private equity firms in unlocking significant capital through sale-leasebacks. Get in touch today!